Jim Harbaugh, the NCAA, and Chaos Theory

When petty absolutism meets regular ol' absolutism.

On November 14, 2009, Stanford running back and eventual Heisman runner-up¹ Toby Gerhart took a handoff on first and goal from the USC 6-yard line. As one would expect from that Stanford team, they ran power out of an I-formation with 23 personnel. Gerhart plunged into the end zone to give unranked Stanford a 48-21 lead over the #9 Trojans with under 7 minutes remaining in the game.

Then third-year Stanford Head Coach James Joseph “Jim” Harbaugh sent the offense back out on the field to try to pick up a mathematically unnecessary two-point conversion. They ran the same play from the same formation, and while it was unsuccessful, that didn’t make USC coach Pete Carroll any happier about the situation. In the postgame handshake in the wake of Stanford’s 55-21 win, Carroll famously asked Harbaugh one question:

“What’s your deal?”

Jim Harbaugh could not understand Pete Carroll not understanding Jim Harbaugh [AP]

Carroll meant it as the most polite way a grown man can say “shove your clipboard up your khakis until it reaches Sharpie level, Jimbo” when he knows he’s on television, but Michigan fans have spent nearly a decade asking that question in earnest at least once per week.

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I’m not breaking any news here when I say that Jim Harbaugh is weird. Unique. Complex. Idiosyncratic. Eccentric. Bonkers. Batshit crazy.

Sure, lots of college football coaches are weird. But they are weird when compared to normal humans. They have normal human traits turned up to eleven. The job attracts and rewards individuals with both a God complex and a singlemindedness of focus that fails to recognize the existence of a world beyond the athletic campus. As a result, you get guys who probably couldn’t function at dinner parties if no one wants to talk about coverage schemes. You get sociopaths who would sell their soul — or, more likely, the souls of their players or assistants — for the slightest recruiting edge. You get guys who don’t know what asparagus is because asparagus ain’t never picked up a blitz.

With most of those coaches, though, the average football fan can describe His Deal without much difficulty. You know Urban Meyer’s Deal. You know Brady Hoke’s Deal. Nick Saban. Dabo Swinney. Brian Kelly. Lane Kiffin. They all have Deals. They are weird or problematic or raging assholes because [articulable reason].

I’ve been emotionally invested in Jim Harbaugh’s actions for most of the last decade, and I still don’t know what his deal is. I don’t know that ANYONE can know what his deal is. Harbaugh doesn’t have quirks. He IS quirks. He’s idiosyncrasies stacked six and a quarter feet high and wrapped in a trench coat and a ball cap.

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Jim Harbaugh is a Land of Contrasts [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

The best definition I have ever seen of Chaos Theory is a system where “the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.” In other words, if you drop a Plinko chip from exactly the same spot every time, it will land in exactly the same spot at the bottom of the board. But if you move it a liiiiiiiittle bit at the beginning, the outcome will vary wildly. That’s chaos. It’s not random, but it’s almost impossible to predict.

Jim Harbaugh is not random. Jim Harbaugh isn’t one of those people who operates as if there were no rules, or who operates as if there the rules do not apply to him, or who selectively follows the rules in whatever way benefits him the most. He does not surrender to whims. Quite the opposite: Jim Harbaugh is the most principled person any of us could ever hope — or fear — to encounter. Given the same inputs, the brain of Jim Harbaugh will spit out the same course of action every time, as reliably as a Jugs machine.

The problem, of course, is that Jim Harbaugh does not operate on broad, Ten Commandments-style principles. Jim Harbaugh operates on a Book-of-Leviticus-meets-the-Internal-Revenue-Code set of principles. His operating protocols are those of a machine learning tool that was trained on random sentences pulled from Wikipedia, the Dead Sea Scrolls, and Sun Tzu’s Art of War. He is a walking game of The Cones of Dunshire. Every position or opinion he holds, and every action he determines to be correct, no matter how unconventional or weird or outright wrong, is held as dearly as if it were handed to him on a golden scroll by Zeus himself.

[Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]

That’s how you get a guy who loves steak and milk, but thinks eating chicken is bad because chicken is a nervous bird. A guy who insists Michigan will not pay players to come to Michigan, but has been a supporter of NIL and thinks the Big Ten should share revenue with players. A guy who brought in sexual assault awareness advocate Brenda Tracey to talk to his team and made her an honorary team captain for the season opener, but who defends Bo Schembechler’s actions with regard to Robert Anderson. A guy who has spoken vocally in favor of traditionally liberal causes like justice system reform and Black Lives Matter, but who headlined a Right To Life fundraiser last summer in the wake of the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Dude is a carefully curated compilation at full volume. A bird’s nest lovingly and painstakingly crafted from assorted art supplies found in the dumpster behind a Hobby Lobby. Like a hoarder explaining why everything in that house REALLY DOES need to be there. It’s not a lie if you believe it, and it’s not hypocrisy or a contradiction if you can explain how you got there.

Sure, you cannot predict what Jim Harbaugh will do based on what most people would do in a similar situation. But you also can’t predict what Jim Harbaugh will do based on what JIM HARBAUGH would do in a similar situation. Because “similar” does not mean “the same.” and he won’t smooth the edges for the sake of perceived consistency. Jim Harbaugh is a jackhammer.

The result is one of the more successful coaches in sports. But, man… it’s a lot.

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Knowing this, Michigan fans have always enjoyed the experience of interlopers trying to interpret Harbaugh as if he were, for lack of a better term, a normal guy. A quick Google search shows countless articles with some variation of “What message is he trying to send by climbing a tree in David Long’s yard???” But if they had asked any Michigan fan, the answer would have been simple: “Jim saw a tree, and, you know… tree.”

These last couple of weeks have been a perfect example. Sure, we have been nervous about Harbaugh’s potential departure for the NFL, as we know better than anyone that you just can’t predict what that man will do from moment to moment. But in our anxiousness, we have also taken solace — and, dare I say, joy — in watching national media figures trying to parse Jim Harbaugh’s statements and actions as if they conveyed some deeper meaning that they could possibly tease out. We’ve been observing the man for years, and we have only a vague understanding. And you’re gonna just pop in and translate these ancient runes like you’re conjugating regular verbs in freshman Spanish?

As if you, a normal mortal, could look at a paragraph produced by EITHER Jim Harbaugh or an agent/lawyer for Jim Harbaugh (who was presumably brought in to be the exact opposite of Jim Harbaugh), or some combination of the two in unknown proportions, run it through some Princess Bride Battle Of Wits analysis, and come up with some deeper truth? Lord, grant me that confidence.

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Harbaugh’s probably going to sign a new contract with Michigan. He might have even signed it before you read this. Or he might not. He might leave for the NFL tomorrow. Who knows. He’s Jim Harbaugh. No man knows the future. But that’s not what concerns me.

This is what concerns me.

The world has, by and large, learned to make adapt to Harbaugh’s… Harbaughness. But if there is one entity that is more dedicated to being exactly what it is regardless of rhyme, reason, logic, or self-interest than Jim Harbaugh, it is the National Collegiate Athletic Association. And that is my concern.

I’m sure you’ve heard by now that Jim Harbaugh is facing a Level 1 NCAA HyperViolation with Cheese for not cooperating into an investigation into an illicit cow sandwich. I’m not going to get into the stupidity of the investigation or the charge itself, as I have already taken up too much of your time today and BOY HOWDY do I have some thoughts. But I have two nagging thoughts here:

First, I have seen many people say, “I’m sure he didn’t LIE about it, he probably just wasn’t super forthcoming or helpful.”

Are you? Are you sure about that? Is that not a thing you can see Jim Harbaugh doing? Can you not see him evaluating the stupidity of the situation with which he was presented and having his brain decide, “nope, not playing along with this stupidity, not even a little bit” and completely saying “to hell with this?”

Second, and of much greater concern, is that I have seen multiple places that Harbaugh can lessen the punishment from this investigation by acknowledging his terrible mistake, apologizing for his terrible mistake, and getting slapped on the wrist and having a scarlet “B” (for “Beef”) sewn onto his gameday attire.

Most coaches would do that. Most coaches would look at the crowd with a knowing “can you believe these assholes” smirk, issue a statement of contrition that no one believes, and move on with their lives. It’s the cost of doing business. And that is what the NCAA is going to demand here. And Harbaugh might say no. Because… well, he might just say no. And god help us when that happens.

You see, the NCAA is in a bad spot right now. They went all-in on amateurism and struck out with a Rob Deer-like ferocity. They are trying desperately to enforce rules they can barely articulate, let alone apply with any consistency. The overwhelming national reaction, even among those with no love for Harbaugh, to the head coach of one of the premier programs in the country catching a Level 1 violation was laughter… and not at the accused. No one cares.

But I guarantee you: the NCAA doesn't care that no one cares. They desperately need wins. And in this case, they have a rule that hasn’t been blasted into a million pieces by the courts, the states, and the changing nature of the game. They have a case that doesn’t involve trying to pretty-please information out of third parties². And, most importantly, they have a principle they can articulate without everyone shrugging and pointing to a thousand counter-examples: you can't lie to the NCAA.

And now they face the prospect of Jim Harbaugh offering them nothing, not even the fee for the gaming license. Why? Because he’s Jim Harbaugh. And what happens beyond that, as both stubborn parties continue to escalate the thing to prove a point no one can fully understand over an issue so dumb no one could possibly care? When one side can’t afford to lose, and the other side refuses to deviate from the thing he has decided? Does Harbaugh get suspended for six games? For a year? Does Michigan’s program get hit with additional Failure To Genuflect penalties? Does Harbaugh leave for the NFL in defiance?

This is my concern.

1. Mark Ingram, Gerhart, and Colt McCoy finishing ahead of Ndamukong Suh remains among the worst Heisman crimes of the century, topped only by Jason White beating out Larry Fitzgerald in 2003.

2. Imagine the NCAA’s shock when they said “we will investigate NIL interactions, so everyone must turn over the following information,” only to have everyone remind them they aren’t ACTUALLY the government and don’t have subpoena power.